Last Updated: July 28, 2000
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Demographics
Shifting demographics mandate change
Media researcher says that younger generations are
reading less and that the country is becoming more and more diverse
By Beverly Kees
Diversity is more than just “a nice thought,” demographer Hazel Reinhardt
said at the ASNE convention. “It may be the very essence and future of
our business.”
Newspaper editors often comfort themselves with the thought that the
majority of people turn to newspapers as they get older — as they have
children, buy houses, settle into the community.
It’s not happening. Not among readers and not among newsroom staffs.
Reinhardt, a Minneapolis-based consultant on market and demographic
analysis, began her remarks just after it was announced that newsroom diversity
had increased in the past year by one-third of 1 percent — to 11.8 percent
— somewhat short of a blazing comet.
“There are very few products or services in America that don’t have
a demographic profile to their users or readers,” Reinhardt said. “It is
no different for newspapers, especially daily newspapers. Readership is
affected by gender, particularly by age, by levels of education and income.
Probably the most significant thing we’re now faced with is the turnover
of generations.”
In the first 20 years of the 21st century, Reinhardt said, the nation
becomes “truly a pluralistic society. The United States was never homogeneous,
but it is now becoming a truly pluralistic society.”
Age
“For pre-baby boomers, people born before 1946, on average 70 percent
of them read a newspaper on a typical weekday.
“For baby boomers (born 1946-1964), it’s about 58 percent. And for Generation
X (born 1965-1976) it’s only 46 percent.
“The history since 1979 is pretty clear: Each generation of younger
people has been reading the daily newspaper less. There is no evidence
that reading increases with age.”
Reinhardt outlined what she considers crucial demographic changes in
age and diversity that are affecting newspaper readership:
“White folks are becoming old folks in America. That will bring about
a slower growth in the population. America is becoming a more diverse society,
racially and ethnically, brought about in large measure by immigration.”
By 2010, “half of all Americans will be over the age of 38. The median
age for white non-Hispanics will be 44.
“The next decade is when America becomes elderly. … After 2011 the first
leading edge of the baby boomers will be turning 65. By 2020-2025 they
will be 18-19 percent of the U.S. population.
“Our best readers are at risk of dying in the next 10 and 20 years.
The pre-boomers accounted for 31 percent of all adults in 1998 and will
be but 17 percent of all adults in 2010. We look at Generation Y (born
1977-1999), which was barely a blip in 1998; that will be 29 percent of
the adult pool by 2010. One of the things you quickly see is that half
of all adults will be over 45 years of age in 2010 and half will be under.
Never have newspapers faced the challenge of such a bifurcated market in
terms of age and generation. That’s one of the big backdrops occurring.”
Diversity
“In 1965, immigration laws changed in America. What has resulted is
that an increasing proportion of the population is foreign-born. Almost
10 percent in 1997. The Census Bureau tells us that if current rates of
immigration continue, we may well be back at the 13 percent we saw in 1920.”
These are some of the characteristics of foreign-born population:
-
Foreign-born are 10 percent of the population but 12 percent of the labor
force
-
28 percent of the foreign-born are from Mexico
-
27 percent are from Asia
-
11 percent of metropolitan area populations are now foreign-born
Not only is 10 percent of the overall population foreign-born, Reinhardt
said, but 21 percent are children of foreign-born. “Nearly a third of our
population has some immediate contact with the immigrant experience. In
many ways we are today where we were in the early part of the 20th century.
For newspapering, what does that mean? We have built a mass market in the
last 50 years. If we look at the early part of the century, it was certainly
not a mass market. There were many specialized publications and that may
be one of our challenges as we look forward.”
Three-fourths of the foreign-born live in six states: California, New
York, Florida, Texas, New Jersey and Illinois.
In 1997, 25 percent of all races combined had a college degree.
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27 percent of foreign-born have college degrees
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49 percent of foreign-born from Africa hold college degrees
-
42 percent of foreign-born from Asia
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29 percent from Europe
-
5 percent from Mexico
“Immigration is adding not only to our pluralism but to socio-economic
differentiation. Some people coming are very well educated and some are
not,” she said.
Another factor to consider: “34 percent of the population under 18 is
in poverty.”
“White non-Hispanics and African Americans both have fertility below
replacement. In the Hispanic population, we are importing our fertility.
There are a larger number of Hispanic births than African American births
in the United States. More school children at elementary grade level are
Hispanic than African American.”
Another change in recent years: “Nearly half of married African American
couples have incomes over $50,000 a year. In the last 20 years, we have
had an African American population that has become more bifurcated also
— some people remaining very poor and others moving not only into the middle
income groups but starting to move into the upper middle income groups.
Forty-six percent are householders. African Americans moving back to the
South in increasing numbers.
“The largest African American population is in Cook County, Ill. (Chicago)
— 1.4 million — 27 percent of Cook County’s population, followed by Los
Angeles, Kings County which is Brooklyn, Wayne County-Detroit, Harris County
which is Houston, Philadelphia County, Bronx and Queens.
“The Asian population is very concentrated in America — Hawaii, of course,
but 12 percent of California, 6 percent of the state of Washington. On
the East Coast, it’s in New York.”
Why it matters
“Unless Generation Y reads at a much higher level, overall readership
will fall below 50 percent by 2010.” (Reinhardt said at the fall APME conference
that newspapers have already lost Generation X and have a five-year window
to attract Generation Y.)
The demographic information “also makes the case that as a pluralistic
society, if American newspapers are perceived to be entities of the dominant,
old, white population, I ask you how can it be perceived to represent communities
that are as diverse as those we have seen. How can it continue to be an
important medium?”
Kees is editor and program director of The Freedom Forum Pacific
Coast Center in San Francisco.
