ASNE - Some days, weather is as big a factor as news

Newsday finds that snow kills single-copy sales, but cloudy days help; major local stories can significantly increase sales for several days

Do you have a systematic way of analyzing the content of front pages where there have been heavy single-copy sales? How do you do it?

We produce a report every week that shows single copy sales, the headlines on the front cover and the back cover (we're a tabloid, so the back cover is always sports), the weather and the truck dispatch time. Many factors can affect single copy sale on a given day: if it rains hard, sales go down. If it's cloudy or drizzly, usually we have a good sale. If it's a gorgeous summer day, sales go down. If it snows, sale go way down. If the trucks are late, sales go down. Sales are lowest on Monday and rise to a high on Friday. Sales are lower in the summer and winter than in the spring and fall.

We do not systematically analyze page one to determine what kinds of stories sell best. Given the complexity of the single-copy buying habit, it would be difficult to control for all the variables. A paper might sell well because of a seasonal factor, or because of a weather factor, or because we had a very good night in production and trucking. Was it the headline and story that made the sale strong, or was it another factor? A couple of years ago, we talked about trying to create a computer program that would weigh all the variables and tell us what was really driving single copy sales, But the job was daunting and we went on to more doable tasks.

Obviously, major breaking news sells papers. What big stories of the past year or so sold papers for you?

We have good evidence that big news sells. Here are major stories that got us a big bump in circulation in the past year and a half: TWA Flight 800 explodes (this bump - initially 15,000 extra papers - continued for more than a week, though it tapered down after the first couple days); Yankees win the World Series (good for about three days of increased sales, through the victory parade); wildfires on the East End of Long Island; O.J. Simpson verdict; Oklahoma City bombing.

Are there good examples of enterprise triggering sales?

We do not have any documentation that major enterprise stories trigger sales. But we consider enterprise an essential aspect of our appeal to readers.

How significant are headlines? Can you describe some major sellers? Is size of headline a factor? What about pictures? Color?

We're a tabloid with one major story on page one, usually with photo and always with color. From a design perspective, the headline, art and color all work together. We don't pick a story for page one because we can write a catchy headline: for example, the famous New York Post headline: "Headless Body in Topless Bar." In general we pick the story that we think is the best story of the day, and then we write the best headline we can for it.

Do you use contests to drive single-copy, and what effect do they have?

Last summer, we had a sweepstakes designed to drive Sunday single-copy sales. We estimate that it increased Sunday sales by about 3,000 a week. [Newsday's Sunday circulation is more than 650,000.]

Do you use radio or TV promotion, and what effect does that have?

We have very little television promotion. We do have regular radio promotion. The radio promotes such things as upcoming editorial attractions (for example, a new business section or a special one-time feature), service enhancements such as earlier delivery, or the overall image of the paper. Generally, we do not promote same-day editorial content on the radio. It is very difficult to measure the immediate impact of radio promotion on circulation, but we feel that it reinforces our brand identity as well as driving sales.

Hall is managing editor of Newsday of Melville, N.Y. When she wrote this, she was the newspaper's marketing director.