With a few specialized exceptions, losing money is the story among almost all the newspapers with online publishing operations. What's more, a panel of experts discussing the subject at the Newspaper Association of America's Connections conference in June agreed that's just about the way it ought to be.

Asking whether online ventures are making money in their first, second or third year misses the point, says William Bass, senior analyst of people and technologies at Forrester Research. Instead, publishers ought to think like people who launch new magazines - recognizing that most will fail, all will cost several million to explore, and that it takes at least three years cash flow subsidy to prime the pump.

But Bass, like almost all the commentators at the Connections session, is bullish on the future. "You should plan on losing money until 1999" and realize costs will get larger between now and then, he said. "But you can't afford to retrench. After 1999 this is going to explode. It's like a hurricane on the horizon, with the winds picking up."

America Online executive Fred Singer likewise tapped a weather metaphor for his analysis: Make sure you have enough budget to see you through to 1999, he advised, because "when this thing hits, it's going to take off. ... You want to be there when the tornado hits."

Lincoln Millstein, vice president for new media at the Boston Globe, was equally bullish on digital publishing prospects, but found little reassurance in that.

"There is no doubt in my mind that Boston.Com is going to be a profitable, thriving business in a few years," he said. His worry is that Boston.Com will become "a profitable $15 million-a-year business but we'll watch $50 million in (Globe) classified revenue walk out the door."

Millstein said newspaper companies need to see online publishing as a component of the whole enterprise and keep their eye on the bigger picture.

"Make sure the newspaper is the straw that stirs the drink," he said. Most sites appear to be focusing on advertising as the primary revenue source, at least for the near term. "Advertising is going to drive this," Bass said. "The Wall Street Journal may be charging for subscriptions, but you're not the Wall Street Journal."

Even so, most sites are also looking at multiple sources of revenue. Terry Schwadron, deputy managing editor at the Los Angeles Times, says his company's new Web site will pursue "a comprehensive revenue model" that includes "selling ads, making deals, doing joint buys with the newspapers, seeking revenue from archives" and perhaps charging for Hunter, the site's popular news retrieval service.

"In coming from the one area of the paper (the newsroom) that never makes money, I hope we make money wherever we can so we can keep doing what drives us," he said.

Alliances are another clear trend among the more vigorous sites. For example, the L.A. Times' site is affiliated with the Careerpath.com employment service, does joint branding of a Southern California search engine, has recently purchased Hollywood Online and is a regional news provider for the Pointcast network, Schwadron said.

Some Web sites report that they're nearing profitability today. CNN Interactive claims "several million dollars" in annual advertising revenue, according to a Reuters report, and the revenue is "leading the company's interactive division to the break-even point." CNN predicts a doubling of ad revenue in 1997, and reports an average six million "page impressions" per day.

Weaver explores new media strategies for McClatchy Newspapers. Call him at 916/321-1851 or e-mail him at hweaver@mcclatchy.com.